The interactive children’s toy called a Furby has ten times the processing power of the Apollo command module①，and there are now so many microchips in an automobile that Chrysler like to joke that they only bother to put wheels on their cars to stop the computers dragging along the highway.
In simple terms， the 1980s were shaped by cheap microprocessors② and the nine ties by cheap lasers； the symbol of the 1980s was the IC， and the symbol of the 1990s is the Web. What about this decade？ Well， that’s going to be shaped by very low-cost， very high-performance sensors. We’re basically going to attach eyes，ears and sensory③ organs to our computers and ask them to observe and manipulate the physical world on our behalf.
Processors and sensors④ are going to be everywhere： helping McDonalds to keep your French fries consistent the whole world around by embedding networked sensors in their frying machines； telling Coca-Cola when a vending machine is broken or empty； and helping diabetics with subcutaneous⑤ microdelivery systems for insulin⑥ which deliver medication on a precise schedule.
All this means that the volume of information we’re going to ask our networks and computers to handle is going to increase exponentially. If every frying and vending⑦ machine has sensors， just imagine the volumes of data washing around. Lots of it will be low-level， so we will need machines to interact with other machines so that we can do something more interesting than keep track of it all.
The result is that computers will vanish into the artefacts⑧ around us. Inert matter gives way to a world of smart artefacts， so in twenty years time you will walk into a room and assume that there is interactive intelligence in the desk and most of the objects on it.
Sensors are about to become so cheap and high-performance that manufacturers will not only make microchips still smaller， but also add sub-systems in the space they’ve freed up so we will soon have entire personal computers on a chip. There is already a high-performance web server down the road that is no bigger than a pack of cigarettes. Add sensors to that and you can see that these devices are about to get both really cheap； close to free； and really small.
Because sensors are analogue⑨ devices， the real casualty of this shift will be digital technology. We’re seeing the beginning of an analogue electronics revolution and a whole new industry of hybrid⑩ analogue—digital devices. Digital technology will certainly still be around in decades of years， but only for speciality applications.
Still more fundamental is the fact that we’re about to see information technology taking a back seat to an entire new area of fast-growth endeavour； that of biology and genetics. The launching point is when the Human Genome Project is complete. That won’t be the end， but the beginning， of a whole new strand of the future.
① modulen. 模数，模块，登月舱，指令舱
② microprocessorn. ［计］微处理器
③ sensoryadj. 感觉的，感官的
④ sensorn. 传感器
⑤ subcutaneousadj. ［解］皮下的，皮下用的
⑥ insulinn. 胰岛素
⑦ vendv. 出售，贩卖，公开发表
⑧ artefactn. 人工品，赝品
⑨ analoguen. 相似物，类似情况，对等的人
⑩ hybridn. 杂种，混血儿，混合物
电子技术的前景
一种名为Furby的交互式儿童玩具的处理能力是当年阿波罗号宇宙飞船指令舱处理器的十倍。现在的汽车上都装有大量微型芯片，所以克莱斯勒公司的人喜欢开玩笑说，他们之所以要给自己出的汽车装上轮子，不过是免得让计算机自己在公路上拖着地走。
简而言之，左右20世纪80年代的是廉价微处理器，左右20世纪90年代的是廉价激光技术；20世纪80年代的象征是集成电路，20世纪90年代的象征是网络。现在这10呢？左右这10的将是造价极低、性能极高的传感器。简要地说，我们要给计算机装上眼睛、耳朵和感觉器官，让机器替我们观察和处理物质世界。
处理器和传感器会到处都是：给麦当劳店的油炸机装上互联网的传感器，可以保证你在全世界任何麦当劳店都吃到炸得同样好的薯条；可口可乐公司的售货机要是坏了或空了，公司会自动得到通知；给糖尿病患者装上胰岛素皮下微输药系统，可以做到用药的时间和计量精确。
这一切都意味着我们要网络和计算机处理的信息量将成倍增加。如果每一台油炸机和售货机都装上传感器，可以想像四处流动的数据量会有多么大。这些数据大都是低层次的，可以由机器彼此互动去处理，让我们能够做一些比随时掌握这些数据更有趣的事情。
结果是计算机将消失在我们周围熟悉的物品中。随着无自动功能的物品让位给大量智能物品，再过20年，你走进一个房间，屋里的书桌和桌上的大多数东西肯定都具有互动智能。
传感器即将变得价格极低而性能极高，制造商不仅会把芯片做得更小，还会在节省下来的空间里加上子系统。这样，整个一台个人电脑很快就能造在一个芯片上。已经研制出的高性能网络服务器，只有香烟盒那么大。加上传感器，这些装置即将变得既十分价廉——近乎于白送——又十分小巧。
由于传感器属于模拟装置，这一转变的真正受害者是数字技术。一场模拟电子革命和一个生产混成模拟——数字装置的全新产业正在发端。再过几十年，数字技术肯定还存在，但仅限于特殊用途。
更根本的事实是，面对生物与基因技术这一快速发展的全新领域，信息技术将退居二线。新领域的登基时刻就在人类基因组工程完成之时。这一刻不会是一个终结，而是一个全新未来的开始。
